Watching the Mavs-Rockets game, which was really like a playoff game throughout was the thing that brought playoffs energy back for me. Sorta like hearing Christmas music for the first time in November and the little kid in you just feels a little spark of excitement somewhere deep inside. Well that was this game. First of all, the Mavs got manhandled by Yao in the 2nd quarter and were suddenly down by 14 in the 3rd looking lost, offensively and soft on the boards and in the paint. Dirk was off, JT wasn't getting the ball, and Josh Howard was non-existent (as usual) to put it nicely. In other words, the Mavs we've come to know and love over the past 3 years-- so much talent, but little confidence or passion. Then Dampier, wh0 was guarding Yao got his 4th foul and had to sit, so the Mavs brought in Ryan Hollins at the 5 and I'm thinking 'Game Over... why doesn't Carlisle put in Brandon Bass' because Hollins is literally half the size of Yao.
But a funny thing happens.... Hollins actually starts to fight on the block. He grabs a rebound from yao, makes an energy play or two, then out of nowhere catches a tough lob and slams it in Yao's face and-1.
It wasn't the sickest dunk but just the way he reacted was the great part. He just screamed in Artest's face. All of a sudden everybody on Dallas was chest-bumping, talking shit... and you knew they were back in the game. Hollins gets another bucket, the mavs start attacking Yao, drawing fouls from the big man. Hollins draws an offensive foul from him down the other end by fighting hard for postition and all of a sudden Yao has 3 quick fouls (after having 0 for two and a half quarters). the mavs have cut it under 10, and the crowd is going nuts (remember Dallas has to win this game in order to move up to #6 and not play Denver who swept them this year).
The Hollins dunk turned the entire game around. All of a sudden the mavs started fighting on defense, and not just watching Nowitski go 1-on-5 on offense. Jason Kidd suddenly is denying Artest the ball 6 ft outside the 3-point line (taking an elbow on the chin and almost starting a scuffle at one point), and JJ Barea is driving to the hoop again. Then Jason Terry hits 2 threes, and then draws Yao's 4th foul. Then JT just lights up, hitting everything he shoots, and suddenly the offense opens up for Dirk, and before you know it Dallas is up 9. In less than 14 Minutes! Oh and did I mention that even Josh Howard caught fire at one point in the run-- see miracles DO happen!
By the middle of the 4th as Dallas pulled away, and Cuban started jumping up every time Jason Terry touched the ball, Houston couldn't even get Yao the ball-- after Hollins left Bass came in and fronted him better than I've seen anyone do it all year (Bass is a beast on defense if you didn't already know), and the Houston players, with the exception of Kyle Lowry off the bench who is a stud, were totally confounded.
Anyway, it was a great game, and the crowd was bonkers for the last 20 minutes of it, lead by on-court cheerleading by Jason Terry who is one of the most fun "non-megastars" to watch in the NBA. And yes, in my heart I now knew it was time for the playoffs... and Goddamn it, they better be good!
......
So, I decided it was time to make some playoff predictions, because while the matchups are intriguing I think I've got a good handle on who can win and why.
We'll start with the West:
Lakers (1) vs (Jazz (8) -- Lakers in 5.
Clearly this series spells trouble for Utah and I'm pretty sure they can't win a game in LA but they'll probably win 1 at home considering how well they play in salt lake. The interesting thing will be how physical Utah gets and if Deron Williams can go unconscious and start taking the game over and dominating Fisher like he did last year. If that happens and Utah ties it up 2-2 then anything could happen. Unlikely scenario though considering how discombobulated Utah looks this year.
Nuggets (2) vs Hornets (7) -- Hornets in 6.
Here's why: Between the 2-7 teams in the West there is really a slim margin of difference. Which applies especially to NO who are just getting Tyson Chandler back after a month of Injury. Also, I just don't think the Nuggets can win by constantly running the ball in the playoffs, and they have no low-post game for the half-court. Don't count on JR smith making 11 threes a game in this series. Meanwhile, if NO can slow the games down and pick-and-roll they'll have a huge advantage. Yes, Chauncey Billups makes this a totally new Denver team, especially late in games; that's why this'll be a 6 or 7 game series. But I give CP3 and co. the advantage, esp. with their experience from last year.
Spurs (3) vs Mavs (6) -- Spurs in 7.
This might be the best series of the whole 1st round because of how much these teams hate each other (Think back to '06 with the Nowitski and-1 in game 7). Now that the Suns are gone this is the last of the great playoff rivalries from 5 or so years ago, and considering the way the Mavs played at the end of the season, and especially last night, I think it'll be very close. But... despite how much I'll be rooting against them, I always give the advantage to the Spurs in tight, half-court games, because of their defense. So, even without Ginobili I think the spurs will eke this out, and home court will be a difference maker. Preparing ahead of time to get my heart ripped out by a Roger Mason 3 as time expires in game 7.
Portland (4) vs Rockets (5) -- Portland in 7
Interestingly enough, the Rockets may actually be a better playoff team without Tracy McGrady, because instead of watching him isolate they start every possession by going inside and they're moving the ball to their shooters extremely well as of late. Moreover, McGrady out gives more time to players like Lowry and Von Wafer, who can really score and make their bench a force to be reckoned with. The only reason that they won't win this series is that Portland's bench is actually even better. Portland brings in 5 guys in Fernandez, Gonzalez, Outlaw, Frye and Oden who will probably all start at one point in their NBA futures. McMillan has the luxury of playing them all together at times and they score like starters. This'll be close but I think the Blazers are the 2nd best team in the West this year and they'll utilize home-court, a great bench and clutch play from Brandon Roy and win it in 7.
The East:
Cavs (1) vs (8) Pistons -- Cavs in 5
This won't be close, but wouldn't it be great if the Pistons suddenly woke up and made it close, forcing Lebron to go bonkers a la the 2007 Eastern Conference championship where he scored his teams last 23 points. Anyway, that won't happen, but the Pistons will steal one and then look to dump their veterans in the off-season like a sack of slighly moldy potatos that the unemployed in Detroit and Flint would likely still enjoy for dinner.
Celtics (2) vs Bulls (7) -- Celtics in 7
This will be the best 1st round matchup in the East, esp. because it's finally out that KG's nagging injuries are worse than Boston was letting on. Add to that a surging Bulls team that is strangely (for the bulls at least) deep with the addition of Salmons and Miller and it makes for a great series that Boston will only win with some heroics from Paul Pierce I believe. The other thought is that as long as Leon Powe stays healthy the Celtics are still VERY good defensively and that will be a huge factor, as I see Chicago having trouble scoring.
Magic (3) vs Sixers (6) -- Magic in 6
While I'd love to see this one be very close or even dare I say it... a sixers upset, I know deep down that the Magic are just too good with their starting five to be fully challenged in this series. After all, Sammy Dalembert (who will be guarding Dwight Howard) could each his entire body weight like a snake and still not be as big as Howard. So yeah, fast breaks and steals will only get them so far. That said I think it will go to 6 mostly because the Magic rely to much on 3s and it will probably come back to bite them in a couple games.
Hawks (4) vs. Heat (5) -- Hawks in 7
Now I know everyone and their mother has been jumpin on the D. Wade band wagon and guaranteeing them a 2nd round matchup with Lebron and the the Cavs but I think that underestimates the talent of Atlanta's starting 5 and Joe Johnson specifically. Remember round 1 last year when Johnson went off on Boston and, at the end of games, they started double teaming him when he got to half court and he STILL scored. Well, all I'm saying is that D-Wade isn't the only clutch scorer in this series and matchups like Bibby-Chalmers and Horford-O'neal will NOT help the Heat.
(On a side note you have to check this out. Who knew an interactive view of the Heat Roster could be so Classy, Sexy and 80s at the same time. James Jones and Mario Chalmers... always undressing me with your eyes and OH MAN Chris Quinn looks like some fucked up version of the American Psycho guy... lmfao, this is great)
Anywho, Onto the 2nd Round. The West:
Lakers vs Blazers -- Lakers in 7
This is the hypothetical series I'm most pumped about. If you saw this:
Then you know how bad the blood is between these teams this season. The Blazers were even fined for playing this in the opening montage before their next game against LA. Beyond that the player matchups are just sick. Steve Blake vs Fisher will be interesting in that Blake is lanky as a defender and quick enough to blow by Fish, Kobe-Roy could be absolutely Epic, Gasol vs Aldredge will be very even I think, Pryzbilla will try his best to keep Bynum off the glass but that may be advantage Lakers, and one of the more intriguing ones will be who has a bigger impact off the bench Odom/"The Machine" Vujacic or Outlaw/Fernandez. Just thinking about this and how much Portland fans hate LA (and have ever since that Miracle shaq-kobe 15 point comeback in the 4th quarter to win game 6 of the conference finals) gives an LA-tethered Laker-hater like myself chills. I'm imagining Roy just anhilating Kobe with a dunk in game 6 and the Rose Garden just exploding. Can't wait for this series.
Spurs vs Hornets -- Spurs in 7
Again a great rivalry game after last years 7 game series between these two. And I think it will be close again. Both teams are probably worse than they were when they met last year, but I think it will be a good, close series again. This is a close one, probably 50/50 but again I give the Spurs the advantage because of how well they play half court teams and defend the pick and roll. If the Spurs do indeed beat the Mavs in 7 and then the Hornets in 7 it will officially KILL me because I hate the Spurs and watching their parade-to-the-line style of play eats away at my very soul.... On the other hand, though, at least I won't have to watch Manu flop 20 times during this series.
The East, 2nd Round:
Cavs vs Hawks -- Cavs in 6
Everybody's massively in love with the Cavs and Lebron now, and I can't necessarily blame them but I'm not sure the Cavs will score as easily as they have during the season in the playoffs. That said the Hawks can't really match up with Lebron (Marvin Williams anyone?) so this one will probably have a couple blowout games.
Celtics vs Magic -- Celts in 7
Again, the Magic relying on 3s and Howard's tendency to disappear in big games even when faced with Shitty big men (like the Celtics will be forced to play with KG out) will hurt them, and I think the Celtics playing on pure guts and crowd noise will squeak out a good one, especially if Rondo can chew up Rafer alston like I expect him to.
Western Finals:
Lakers vs Spurs -- Lakers in 5
This will probably be a big let down of a series and even worse an exact repeat of what happened last year, where an old, beat-up, tired Spurs team wins two hard fought rounds and then meets a Lakers team that is deep and primed to destroy them quickly and without much trouble.
Eastern Finals:
Cavs vs Celtics -- Cavs in 6
4 letters: No KG. Like Bill Simmons said this morning Pierce will have the exhausting job of having to guard Lebron (who's much more physical this year) and carry the team offensively in terms of creating shots. I just don't see the Celts winning any in Cleveland.
THE FINALS:
Ok so I'm no idiot savant for picking a Cavs-Lakers final, I know, but I'm hoping that my genius lies in picking how close each series will be (and the Hornets/Nuggets upset). But, either way, I could gve a shit about these picks as long as the playoffs are entertaining and have a wealth of 7 game series which I feel good about right now. This finals matchup will probably be no different, and I don't see how it can possibly NOT go 6 or 7 games. I think the Lakers will probably win it for 2 reasons:
1) I think the Lakers are PISSED. I'm sure giving up that Kobe and the rest spent a lot of the off-season stewing about giving up that 24 pt lead in game 4 at Staples, and I don't think that they will let that happen again. Mainly, this boils down to Kobe and co. being more mentally prepared to win it than Lebron. After all, basketball, as we see more and more every season, is more about confidence and decision-making than physical skills by something like a 20 to 1 ratio. And by that I mean simply that everybody in the NBA has talent and, at some level, can score, so what differentiates the players that grow and thrive under pressure is mostly based on what goes on in their heads (the best example of this is watching 6 ft pip squeek JJ Barea take over Mavs games where he's the least talented scorer on the floor purely because he believes he can get to the basket and make something happen). While Lebron is sort of a freak of nature physically and talent wise, even he only plays his best when everything's clicking psychologically. That said I think Kobe (and thus Sensai spiritual guru master Phil Jackson as well) is more ready to win this one. Conversely, I think Lebron will probably be the best player in the history and near future of basketball, better than Kobe, Wilt, Jordan... Everybody. But he's gotta get that killer instinct that Jordan had first. And he's getting close, I just don't think it's fully there yet, and I think that will probably manifest itself in one frustrating game in the finals where he just can't get to the rim consistently and starts settling for 3s and shooting too late in the shot clock. With teams this even, that one game will be the difference. (Side note: can you imagine Jordan with Lebron's body? ... Actually, come to think of it I can. He wins the three championships 3 years earlier, gets bored because it's no longer hard to win (really, really bored) and then retires, only he decides to play football instead and Da Bears win 2 Superbowls in the early 90s with Jim Harbaugh at QB and MJ at Receiver).
2) Despite the fact that I just devoted a paragraph to the psychological outweighing pure talent in basketball, reason #2 is that the Lakers are just more talented, top to bottom, than the Cavs. Gasol can guard Z away from the basket and hinder the pick and roll, Bynum will post up Varejao all day, Mo williams will have an advantage over Fisher but the lakers Bench is better and, most of all they rotate well and won't give up a billion open threes to the cavs shooters like everyone else does.
That said I think Charles Barkley said an interesting thing the other night on TNT. He said if the Lakers don't win it this year, it will be so destructive for Kobe that he'll never win again with that team. I'm not sure he'd be unable to win with them EVER, but I think the idea that not winning it with this lakers team (one that's absolutely STACKED) would kill him, is totally true and I bet that the lakers won't get back to the finals the next year if that happens... but "ever" is a little much.
Anywho that's it. At some point in the 1st round I'm gonna put out my list of 5 favorite non-megastars to watch from the teams still playing. I like watching Kobe and Lebron but I can't stand how many calls they get so I have to say I like watching a few other guys way better (a few are mentioned above).
Later gators... and if the playoffs suck I'm officially done with basketball... til 2010 atleast.
